Overview
- Two senior India Meteorological Department sources told Reuters on Monday that June–September rainfall is likely to finish about 15% below the long-term average, the lowest seasonal total since 2009.
- Satellite images from ISRO’s INSAT-3DS and IMD analysis show an active low-pressure system over central India that is sustaining current heavy, localized rains in places such as Delhi-NCR and parts of Karnataka.
- Short-term forecasts from multiple outlets and state advisories warn of more showers in Mumbai, coastal Karnataka and central India this week while noting no widespread heavy-rain alerts for some metro areas.
- Weather models project El Nino will strengthen in September, which increases the chance of a widespread weakening of the monsoon after about September 10 and a slightly earlier withdrawal from northwest India unless new systems form.
- Lower seasonal rainfall would mainly hit summer-sown crops such as cotton, soybean, corn and pulses, reduce soil moisture needed for winter sowing, squeeze rural incomes and risk upward pressure on food prices.