Overview
- India Meteorological Department data show cumulative June–September rainfall is about 15% below the long-term average, the lowest countrywide level since 2009.
- The shortfall is uneven, with the southern peninsula down about 28%, the east and northeast about 25%, the northwest about 10%, and central India about 6%.
- Forecasters link the deficit to a strengthening El Niño and place high odds that the season will finish 10% to 20% below normal, and they say a possible late-September Bay of Bengal cyclone may give local relief but will not erase the national gap.
- Sowing area is near normal at roughly 98% of the long-term level, shifting concern from acres planted to weaker yields and prompting government steps such as duty-free sugar imports and subsidized onion sales to curb food-price pressures.
- International agencies warn the same El Niño that hit India threatens rain-fed crops worldwide and could add millions to acute hunger, a risk that would amplify food-cost and supply worries for hundreds of millions of farmers and consumers.