Overview
- The India Meteorological Department said cumulative June–September rainfall is about 15% below the long‑term average and that the southwest monsoon began withdrawing from parts of West Rajasthan on Sept 19.
- Specialist models and private analysts assign a high probability the season will finish 10–20% below normal, with some teams forecasting a final deficit near 13–16%.
- Rainfall shortfalls are uneven across India, with the southern peninsula down about 28% and Punjab facing an estimated 39% shortfall, creating sharp local stress on agriculture, groundwater use and power demand.
- A low over the north Andaman Sea is expected to intensify into a depression or deep depression and reach the south Odisha–north Andhra coast around Sept 22–23, prompting coastal alerts and fishing bans while likely leaving the national deficit largely unchanged.
- Policymakers are already using supply measures to limit price shocks—allowing duty‑free sugar imports and selling subsidised onions—because weaker rains typically reduce yields and tend to push food inflation higher, which was 5.95% in August.