Overview
- Reports describe Washington signaling willingness to assist Iranian protesters, with regime-change scenarios, including a Pahlavi restoration, circulating in policy circles.
- India has stayed publicly cautious during the unrest, prioritizing protection of its operations at Chabahar and the corridors that bypass Pakistan.
- Analysts argue a U.S‑dependent monarchy in Tehran would be less inclined to carve out exceptions for India, jeopardizing access to Afghanistan and Central Asia.
- Historical precedents shape New Delhi’s skepticism, including Iran’s 1966–67 facilitation of F‑86 fighter transfers to Pakistan and the Shah’s 1971 warning against any move to “liquidate Pakistan.”
- The protests have produced a reported toll of at least 72 dead and more than 2,300 detained, while Iran’s deepening economic ties with China raise concern that prolonged instability could expand Beijing’s leverage.