Overview

• NSO data reports 6.5% GDP growth in FY25, including a 7.4% rise in the fourth quarter.
• Manufacturing grew by 4.5%, trailing services and agriculture and raising concerns over youth job creation.
• Nomura forecasts moderation to 6.2% in FY26, citing divergence in high-frequency indicators and trade-related headwinds.
• Fitch Ratings lifts India’s five-year potential growth to 6.4%, attributing the upgrade to a sharper rise in labour force participation.
• Analysts expect the Reserve Bank of India to cut interest rates further, with two additional 25-basis-point cuts forecast to underpin momentum.