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India Emerges as Global Leader in Oil Demand Growth, Surpassing China

Moody's projects India's oil consumption to grow 3–5% annually over the next decade, driven by industrial expansion and rising energy needs as China's demand approaches its peak.

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Overview

  • India is now the largest contributor to global oil and gas demand growth, overtaking China's decade-long dominance, according to Moody's latest analysis.
  • India's crude oil consumption is projected to grow at an annual rate of 3–5%, with 2025 demand reaching 5.4 million barrels per day (MBPD).
  • China's oil demand is expected to peak in the next 3–5 years due to slowing economic growth and rapid adoption of electric vehicles.
  • India's state-owned oil marketing companies are investing heavily in expanding refining capacity to meet rising domestic demand for fuels like diesel and petrochemicals.
  • The Indian government is also targeting an increase in natural gas's share of the energy mix from 6% to 15% by 2030, with annual demand growth projected at 4–7%.