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India Delivers AI Monsoon Forecasts to 38 Million Farmers

Open-source hybrid models were translated by University of Chicago partners into SMS tips on when to plant.

India's Ministry of Agriculture and Farmer Welfare delivered regular forecasts via cellphone to some 38 million farmers across northeastern India at the start of the 2025 summer monsoon season. For the first time, these forecasts provided up to four weeks' advance notice of the start of the continuous rainy season, allowing the farmers to better time the planting of crops with the onset of the rains.

Overview

  • India’s Ministry of Agriculture, working with University of Chicago researchers, operated a nationwide SMS service that sent localized month-ahead monsoon guidance to 38 million farmers this season.
  • The system blended Google Research’s NeuralGCM with ECMWF’s AIFS and historical records to generate efficient, high-resolution forecasts.
  • Project reports say the models anticipated monsoon onset up to a month in advance and identified a midseason dry spell during an unusual season.
  • Messages converted technical forecasts into decisions for farmers, including when to plant, whether to buy more seed, switch crops, or wait.
  • Backers note the low computing needs that enable forecasts on smartphones and see potential for replication in other developing countries, while income gains cited stem from prior research rather than independent evaluation of this rollout.