Overview
- The government’s year-end review reports nominal GDP of $4.18 trillion and asserts India has moved into fourth place ahead of Japan.
- IMF forecasts for 2026 estimate India at $4.51 trillion versus Japan at $4.46 trillion, indicating a slim lead.
- Definitive ranking depends on final annual GDP calculations scheduled for release in 2026.
- New Delhi projects displacing Germany within roughly three years and targets a $7.3 trillion economy by 2030.
- Despite headline growth, World Bank data show GDP per capita of $2,694 in 2024, with youth employment pressures and U.S. tariff-related trade headwinds noted.