Overview

• NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam said both governments remain committed to a bilateral agreement, with fresh negotiations held last month and ministerial engagement ongoing.
• He said holiday-season exports are already moving through established channels and he does not expect disruption before Christmas.
• Subrahmanyam warned that failing to settle the pact by November could pressure supply chains by next summer because the current 50% tariff burden is a major cost.
• The U.S. tariff rate was doubled in August to around 50%, including an additional 25% duty linked to India’s purchases of Russian crude, according to public statements and prior government accounts.
• Five negotiation rounds have been completed toward a phased Bilateral Trade Agreement, with an initial tranche planned for fall 2025 and an aim to lift trade toward $500 billion by 2030.