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India and U.S. Enter Final Stretch of Trade Talks as Tariff Relief Hinges on Russian Oil

Officials signal progress with tariff relief linked to India's exposure to Russian crude.

Overview

  • India’s foreign ministry says talks to conclude a bilateral trade agreement are continuing, and Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal describes discussions with the U.S. as at an advanced stage.
  • President Donald Trump has publicly hinted a deal is forthcoming, reinforcing recent high‑level political signals from both capitals.
  • Indian exports currently face about 50% U.S. duties — a 25% reciprocal tariff plus a 25% levy tied to Russian oil purchases — with advisers and reports discussing a potential cut toward 10–15% in a first tranche.
  • Think‑tank GTRI urges India to stop buying crude from sanctioned Russian firms such as Rosneft and Lukoil, warning of secondary sanctions risks, as Indian refiners and ports reportedly scale back exposure.
  • U.S. asks extend beyond tariffs to market access for farm and industrial goods, larger energy and defense buys, and tech data rules, while India insists any deal must safeguard farmers, fishermen and MSMEs, with limited discussions reported on GM corn for ethanol and soy for feed.