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India and Pakistan Near Pre-Conflict Border Levels as Miscalculation Risks Loom

Limited crisis hotlines leave a fragile ceasefire vulnerable to future escalation

India's Chief of Defence Staff Anil Chauhan arrives to attend the Beating the Retreat ceremony, amid rain, in New Delhi, India, January 29, 2023. REUTERS/Altaf Hussain/File photo
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Anil Chauhan, Chief of Defence Staff of the Indian Armed Forces

Overview

  • General Sahir Shamshad Mirza reported that both militaries have nearly restored troop levels to those before the April 22 Pahalgam attack.
  • He warned that strikes on military targets beyond Kashmir have lowered the threshold for future strategic miscalculations.
  • Senior commanders agreed a ceasefire on May 10 following US-facilitated diplomacy and India’s insistence on bilateral talks confined to terrorism and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.
  • Only a military directors-general hotline links the two forces which increases the risk of uncontrolled escalation.
  • Officials confirm that neither side prepared nuclear weapons during the four-day clash but cautioned that the episode highlighted the danger of rapid escalation.