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INDEC Reports October Inflation at 2.2%, Above Market Forecasts

Zona Fría gas‑subsidy changes pushed tariffs higher, a shock that could carry into November

Overview

  • On Thursday, Nov. 12, INDEC published the October consumer price index showing a 2.2% monthly rise, a 26.3% increase year‑to‑date and a 33.1% 12‑month rate.
  • The agency said volatile seasonal goods climbed 5.5% and regulated prices rose 2.9% while the IPC núcleo, which excludes those categories, stayed lower at 1.5%.
  • INDEC and analysts identified three specific gas‑tariff drivers: new tariff tables that took effect Oct. 1, tightened subsidised consumption blocks and changes to the Zona Fría rules that reduced subsidies for many households.
  • The jump in fresh‑food prices—especially vegetables, tubers and legumes—plus higher gas bills explain why the official 2.2% result beat private and REM forecasts that had clustered around 1.8%–2.1%.
  • The report has immediate policy and social implications because basic‑basket costs rose faster than headline inflation and analysts warn the tariff and seasonal food effects may add further pressure to November readings.