Overview
- Ind-Ra’s pre-release assessment projects 7.2% year-on-year real GDP growth for July–September, with the official NSO reading due on November 28.
- Private consumption is estimated to have risen about 8% from a year earlier, supported by lower inflation, real wage gains, and FY26 income tax cuts.
- Supply-side momentum reflects a resilient services sector and base-effect lift to manufacturing through goods exports, Ind-Ra says.
- Investment demand is pegged to have grown roughly 7.5% year-on-year, helped by steady central government capital expenditure.
- Ind-Ra estimates nominal GDP growth slipped below 8% in the quarter, aligning with slower tax receipts and raising fiscal risks despite firm real growth.