Overview
- Ind-Ra says private consumption led gains, estimating about 8% year-on-year growth with support from low inflation, tax cuts and rural wage gains.
- Investment demand likely rose around 7.5% in Q2, with steady central government capex and a resilient services sector supporting activity.
- Ind-Ra cautions nominal GDP may have dipped below 8% in Q2, signaling possible pressure on tax revenues and the fiscal math.
- Moody’s forecasts real GDP growth of 7% in 2025 and about 6.5% in 2026–27, keeping India as the G-20’s fastest-growing economy.
- Despite 50% U.S. tariffs on some goods, overall exports rose 6.75% in September even as U.S.-bound shipments fell 11.9%, though analysts warn growth could cool later in FY26.