Overview

• Dalio forecasts a debt-driven financial collapse in roughly three years, plus or minus one to two years, citing the latest U.S. budget plan.
• He notes a fiscal gap of about $7 trillion in spending versus $5 trillion in revenue, which he says will require heavy bond issuance as investors question Treasuries.
• He warns that threats to Federal Reserve independence, highlighted by the removal of governor Lisa Cook and partisan appointments, could push policymakers to keep rates too low and weaken trust in the dollar.
• He says some international investors are shifting out of U.S. government bonds into gold, with one report noting gold reached a record $3,500 per ounce.
• He criticizes the government’s 10% stake in Intel as a sign of tighter state control and likens today’s political economy to the 1930s–40s, while adding that many in finance stay quiet for fear of retaliation.