Overview

• Commerce Department’s third and final estimate shows U.S. GDP contracted at a 0.5% annualized rate from January through March, steeper than the previously reported 0.2% decline.
• A 37.9% surge in imports ahead of anticipated tariffs subtracted nearly 4.7 percentage points from first-quarter GDP.
• Consumer spending growth decelerated sharply during the quarter, amplifying the overall economic contraction.
• Federal government outlays fell at a 4.6% annual rate, marking the largest decline since 1986.
• Economists surveyed by FactSet predict a roughly 3% rebound in GDP for the second quarter as import flows normalize.