Overview

• Imperial College projects up to 480 avoidable deaths over 20 years and about 390,000 extra cases if coverage stays near 90 percent.
• England’s two‑dose MMR uptake is roughly 85 percent, far below the 95 percent threshold required to maintain measles elimination.
• UKHSA notes the analysis is a worst‑case scenario that assumes no response, urging caution and further action during outbreaks.
• Health services have advanced the first MMR dose to 18 months and a national catch‑up drive delivered 180,000 additional vaccinations in 2023–24.
• A recent child death and serious cases at Alder Hey underscore current risks, as experts cite access barriers and misinformation and some call for debating mandates or financial penalties.