Overview

• Imperial College modelling projects a worst‑case toll of about 480 avoidable deaths and 390,000 additional cases over 20 years if uptake does not improve and no outbreak response occurs.
• England’s two‑dose MMR coverage is about 85% with some London areas near 70%, below the World Health Organization’s 95% level needed to prevent sustained transmission.
• This summer’s rise includes 674 confirmed cases in England so far this year, with 111 in the North West, and a child’s death and other severe illnesses reported at Alder Hey in Liverpool.
• NHS England’s 2023–24 catch‑up campaign delivered roughly 180,000 extra MMR vaccinations, and UKHSA has moved the first dose to 18 months to boost protection earlier.
• Experts cite access barriers and misinformation for low uptake, recommend targeted outreach and easier appointments, note a potential £290 million economic cost, and some call for debate on mandates or financial penalties.