Overview

• The IMF has sharply reduced its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, down from 3.3% in January, attributing the decline to economic uncertainty caused by President Trump’s tariffs.
• U.S. economic growth is now projected to slow to 1.8% this year, with recession odds rising to 40%, up from 25% in late 2024, according to the IMF.
• Trump’s tariff policy, which includes a universal 10% baseline tariff and steep levies on Chinese goods, has disrupted global supply chains and heightened financial instability.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is leading bilateral negotiations with Japan and South Korea at the IMF-World Bank meetings to seek tariff carve-outs and trade relief.
• Project 2025’s proposal for U.S. withdrawal from the IMF and World Bank has raised concerns about the future of multilateral institutions and global economic cooperation.