Overview
- In its latest outlook, the IMF says the global picture has "abruptly darkened" because the war has choked energy flows and damaged key production sites.
- The fund warns a severe Gulf war scenario could cut 2026 global growth by 1.3 percentage points, making a recession a close call.
- Britain takes the biggest downgrade among major economies, with GDP now forecast to grow 0.8% this year and 1.3% next year.
- The IMF also sees UK inflation averaging 3.2% this year and unemployment rising to 5.6%, as dearer energy, fuel, and food squeeze households and firms.
- President Trump said ceasefire talks with Iran could restart soon, and reports said Tehran may pause shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to spur negotiations.