Overview

• The IMF announced that its upcoming World Economic Outlook will feature substantial downward revisions to global GDP growth projections for 2025-26, citing the impact of US-led trade tariffs.
• Despite escalating trade tensions, the IMF reassured that a global recession is not anticipated, maintaining a cautiously optimistic stance.
• Higher inflation forecasts are expected for some countries, reflecting the broader economic effects of protectionist trade measures.
• IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva highlighted unprecedented trade policy uncertainty and market volatility as key challenges stemming from the tariff conflict.
• The IMF emphasized the long-term costs of economic fragmentation, warning that protectionism reduces productivity, increases consumer costs, and disrupts global trade dynamics.