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6mo ago

IMF Warns of Global Growth Slowdown as U.S.–China Tariff Battle Escalates

New IMF projections show a marked deceleration in global growth for 2025, driven by unprecedented tariff levels between the U.S. and China, though recession is not anticipated.

Malgré les «incertitudes» engendrées par les «politiques commerciales», «nos projections de croissance sont à la baisse mais ne montrent pas de récession», a assuré Kristalina Georgieva, la directrice générale du FMI
a directrice générale du Fonds monétaire international (FMI), Kristalina Georgieva, à Washington aux Etats-Unis, le 17 avril 2025

Overview

  • The U.S. effective tariff rate has surged to approximately 20%, the highest in nearly a century, following new duties imposed by President Trump on April 5.
  • China has retaliated with 125% tariffs on American goods, heightening tensions between the world's two largest economies.
  • The IMF projects a slowdown in global economic growth for 2025 but stops short of predicting a recession, despite significant trade disruptions.
  • Smaller economies face heightened risks as spillover effects from the U.S.–China trade conflict disrupt global trade networks.
  • The IMF calls for bold reforms, including fiscal consolidation, banking sector modernization, competition rule updates, and AI adaptation, to strengthen global economic resilience.