Overview

• President Trump’s sweeping tariffs, introduced on April 2 and labeled 'Liberation Day' by the White House, have triggered global market declines and retaliatory measures from key trading partners.
• The IMF reports heightened trade policy uncertainty and volatility but emphasizes that a global recession remains unlikely, projecting a slowdown instead of contraction.
• The WTO forecasts a contraction in global trade volumes this year, directly linking the decline to the U.S. tariff strategy and escalating trade tensions.
• IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva calls for coordinated structural reforms, urging the U.S. to address fiscal deficits, China to strengthen social safety nets, and Europe to reduce internal trade barriers.
• Critics, including economist Adam Posen, describe the Trump administration’s tariff policies as a potential economic quagmire, with financial markets reacting modestly so far but posing risks to broader economic stability.