Overview

• Global public debt is projected to surpass 100% of world output by 2029, reaching the highest level since 1948, according to the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor.
• Under an adverse yet plausible scenario, the IMF says debt could climb to about 123% of GDP, raising the risk of a disorderly market correction and a fiscal‑financial doom loop.
• Several advanced economies already at or heading above 100% of GDP include the United States, China, Canada, France, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom, with U.S. debt seen above 140% by decade’s end and China near 113%.
• The IMF calls for reduced deficits, stronger fiscal buffers and a shift toward growth‑oriented investment such as infrastructure and education, noting that devoting 1% of GDP to human capital could lift advanced‑economy output by more than 3% by 2050.
• The report flags 55 countries in or near debt distress despite lower ratios, highlights higher borrowing costs and structural spending pressures, and notes UK market concerns alongside upcoming IMF reviews of the U.S. and China.