Overview
- The IMF’s World Economic Outlook now projects global GDP growth of 3.2% in 2025 before easing to 3.1% in 2026.
- France’s 2026 growth forecast was cut to 0.9% after July’s 1.0% estimate, with 2025 nudged up to 0.7%.
- The French finance ministry is basing its 2026 budget on 1.0% growth, creating a credibility gap with the IMF view.
- IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warned that higher tariffs and US–China trade tensions could deliver a downside scenario.
- Regional divergences persist: the euro area is seen around 1.1% in 2026, Spain outperforms, the US holds near 2% supported by AI investment, and China’s path stays constrained by property-sector risks.