Overview

• Argentina’s 2025 GDP forecast is cut to 4.5% with 4.0% expected in 2026, as the IMF lifts inflation projections to a 41.3% annual average and 28% at year-end and now sees unemployment at 7.5% and a 1.2% current‑account deficit.
• Mexico’s growth is confirmed at 1.0% for 2025 and 1.5% for 2026, with the IMF noting recent upside inflation surprises and emphasizing long‑term needs in infrastructure, rule of law and deeper trade integration.
• Latin America and the Caribbean is now seen expanding 2.4% in 2025, an upgrade tied to firmer outlooks in Mexico and Brazil, with Brazil projected at 2.4% next year and 1.9% in 2026.
• The IMF says the drag from U.S. tariffs proved smaller than feared thanks to exemptions and supply‑chain shifts, keeping global growth at 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026 while risks persist from trade uncertainty, fiscal strains and institutional erosion.
• Independent researchers argue Argentina’s program depends on continued external support, citing the April US$20 billion IMF EFF and recent U.S. Treasury assistance, and they report large real cuts to social and environmental programs that raise political and sustainability concerns.