IMF Sees U.S. Debt Overtaking Italy and Greece by 2030 After 'Big, Beautiful Bill'

Overview

• The IMF projects U.S. public debt rising from roughly 125% of GDP today to about 143% by 2030, above Italy’s near 137% and Greece’s near 130%.
• Congress’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” pairs large tax cuts with higher outlays, including a proposed near-$1 trillion “Golden Dome” missile shield and expanded immigration enforcement.
• The IMF expects U.S. budget deficits to exceed 7% of GDP each year for the next five years.
• Treasury data show the national debt around $38 trillion as the pace of borrowing quickens, with recent annual shortfalls consistently above $1 trillion.
• The GAO cautions that, without policy shifts, interest costs could overtake Social Security spending by 2044, with current payments already above $1 trillion a year.