IMF Sees Brazil’s Debt Climbing to 98% of GDP by 2030 as It Warns on Servicing Costs

Overview

• The IMF’s Fiscal Monitor projects Brazil’s gross public debt at 91.4% of GDP in 2025, stabilizing near 98.1% from 2028 through 2030 after a gradual rise.
• Fiscal chief Vitor Gaspar called Brazil’s debt cost “extremely high” and recommended improving the composition and efficiency of expenditures to reverse the upward path.
• IMF forecasts for the general government show a primary deficit of 0.6% of GDP in 2025 and 0.4% in 2026, turning to surplus from 2027 and reaching 1.4% by 2030.
• Brazil’s 2025 growth outlook was raised to 2.4%, a change that helps explain the slightly lower near‑term debt ratio versus earlier IMF projections.
• Domestic Prisma Fiscal medians improved slightly, with a 2025 central‑government primary deficit of R$67.568 billion and DBGG at 79.6% of GDP, using a methodology that yields lower ratios than the IMF’s measure.