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IMF Says India’s New GDP Methodology Follows Good Statistical Practice

The fund raised its 2026-27 growth forecast to 7%, saying recent rupee weakness reflects global energy-related shocks rather than weak domestic demand.

Overview

  • The IMF publicly endorsed India's switch to a FY 2022-23 GDP base and other methodological changes, calling the revisions consistent with advice from its statistics department and with good statistical practice.
  • The endorsement accompanied an upward revision to India's growth outlook, with the IMF raising its 2026-27 GDP forecast to 7% on the view that services and domestic demand remain resilient.
  • India's statistics office changed the base year and added new data series, including updated industrial production and producer price index inputs and a double-deflation approach for manufacturing, which recalibrated past quarterly figures.
  • Former finance secretary S C Garg alleged that revisions compressed the prior year to inflate growth and opposition parties questioned the numbers, while the chief economic adviser rejected that claim as selective use of data.
  • The IMF framed recent pressure on the rupee as driven by global factors tied to an energy shock, noted some authorities intervened in foreign-exchange markets, and said statistical work can still be improved going forward.