Overview

• The IMF now projects Mexico’s GDP to grow 1.0% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, after estimating 1.2% growth in 2024.
• The Fund recommends accelerating fiscal consolidation toward roughly 2.5% of GDP by 2027 versus projections of 4.3% this year and 4.1% in 2026.
• Banxico should proceed with easing only if inflation is clearly converging to the 3% target, with risks highlighted from services prices, potential food disinflation reversals, and peso depreciation episodes.
• Financial stability risks are assessed as low, with a push for greater competition and depth in the financial sector.
• The IMF underscores strengthening the rule of law and clarifying institutional changes such as the integration of INAI functions, while at home Hacienda faces criticism over a planned rise in ISR withholding in 2026.