Overview

• The IMF’s July World Economic Outlook lifted global GDP forecasts to 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026, attributing the gains to intensified trade ahead of anticipated U.S. tariffs.
• Italy’s 2025 growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 percentage point to 0.5%, while the projection for 2026 stayed at 0.8%.
• Preliminary Istat figures show Italy’s GDP fell 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025 and rose 0.4% year-on-year, falling short of the government’s 0.6% target.
• The Q2 downturn reflected declines in agriculture and industry alongside stable services, with stronger domestic demand offset by a marked drop in net foreign demand.
• Within the EU, the IMF projects Spain to expand 2.5% in 2025, outpacing Italy and other major economies such as France (0.6%) and Germany (0.1%).