Overview
- India’s 2025 growth projection is lifted by 0.7 percentage point to 7.3%, with the IMF seeing a moderation to 6.4% in 2026 and 2027 as temporary drivers fade.
- China reports 5.0% full‑year growth for 2025 with fourth‑quarter expansion slowing to 4.5%, even as the IMF upgrades China’s 2026 outlook to 4.5% on lower U.S. effective tariffs and assumed stimulus.
- The IMF keeps 2025 global growth at an estimated 3.3% and nudges 2026 to 3.3%, noting businesses have adapted through supply‑chain rerouting and trade deals that lowered some duties.
- Strong AI‑related capital spending lifts near‑term activity, including a U.S. 2026 growth estimate of 2.4%, while global inflation is projected to ease to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.
- Risks remain tilted to the downside, with the IMF warning that setbacks in AI productivity gains, renewed trade frictions, or geopolitical and fiscal strains could derail the outlook.