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3h ago

IMF Raises 2025 Global Growth to 3.2% as Outlook Remains Fragile

Germany faces a softer 2026 path at 0.9%, below the government's 1.3% expectation.

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The largest harbor in the world, Yang shan harbor of shanghai, China
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Overview

  • The Fund kept its 2026 world growth estimate at 3.1% after revising 2025 up to 3.2%.
  • Germany is projected to grow 0.2% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026, leaving it the weakest performer among the large G7 economies.
  • The euro area is forecast to expand 1.2% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, with intra-European trade offsetting weaker shipments to the United States.
  • The U.S. outlook is nudged up to 2.0% for 2025 and 2.1% for 2026, while China is seen at 4.8% and 4.2%, respectively.
  • IWF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas calls growth “stable but fragile,” citing U.S. tariffs that are redirecting trade and may hit with delayed effects.