Overview
- IMF staff and market reports indicate a second consecutive waiver for missed net reserve goals will be approved with the next review, enabling an estimated $1.05 billion disbursement around January 23.
- By the IMF’s measure, net international reserves remain roughly $15.5 billion in the red, even as gross reserves hover near $42 billion.
- BCRA officials reaffirm a remonetization-first approach and keep the exchange-rate framework in place, despite IMF guidance and market criticism pushing for faster reserve buildup.
- JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley urge a recalibrated FX regime and a rules-based reserve accumulation plan to attract dollars and regain market access, and they expect a waiver to be needed.
- Short-term financing strains include about $4.3 billion due January 9; the government raised $910 million via a new dollar bond, is evaluating $6–7 billion in bank repos, and has limited recourse to a US ESF swap with only $2.5 billion activated.