Overview

• Technical talks have concluded, with policy‑level meetings set to wrap up by October 9–10 to decide on the next IMF disbursement.
• The IMF is prepared to allow about Rs500 billion in within‑budget adjustments for flood costs while preserving the primary surplus target.
• Negotiating sources say the proposed offsets include a Rs300 billion cut to the federal development program and Rs150 billion from the contingency pool.
• Pakistan sought relief equal to roughly Rs500 billion by easing the primary surplus and provincial cash‑surplus goals, which the IMF has not endorsed so far.
• FBR revenue slippages of roughly Rs170–198 billion could prompt a down‑revision to about Rs13.96 trillion and strain provincial surplus pledges, with Punjab’s Rs740 billion commitment contingent on the FBR hitting its original target.