Overview

• The IMF now projects Brazil’s gross debt at 91.4% of GDP in 2025, rising toward about 98.1% by 2030, the fourth highest among 38 emerging economies covered.
• The path is slightly better than April’s outlook, with stabilization expected late in the decade rather than a continued climb.
• Primary deficits are projected for 2025 and 2026 before a shift to small surpluses from 2027, reaching a 1.4% surplus by 2030.
• The nominal deficit is put at about 8.4% of GDP in 2025, with interest payments near 8% of GDP identified as the key driver of debt dynamics.
• IMF official Vitor Gaspar urged Brazil to improve spending composition and efficiency and to redirect the spending trajectory downward, noting a methodological gap with the central bank’s lower 77.5% debt ratio for August.