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IMF Lowers Argentina 2026 Growth Forecast While Backing Milei’s Reforms

The fund urged deeper fiscal consolidation to secure the pending third review that would free about $869 million.

Overview

  • Speaking Friday in Bangkok, IMF officials cut Argentina’s 2026 growth forecast to 2.1% and raised the 2027 projection to 3.5%.
  • The IMF said supply-side reforms enacted by President Javier Milei are producing results and noted Argentina’s debt-to-GDP ratio is declining rapidly.
  • Technical teams are still negotiating the program’s third review, and staff approval of that review would unlock a roughly US$869 million disbursement.
  • The fund urged sharper cuts to broad energy subsidies and recommended replacing them with well-targeted transfers and greater labor-market flexibility to support job creation.
  • The U.S. Treasury publicly pressed the IMF and World Bank for tougher oversight and shifted financing priorities, and Argentine authorities say they are covering near-term maturities with reserve purchases, refinancings and a swap with China.