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IMF Lifts Mexico’s 2025 Growth to 1.0% but Rules Out Top‑10 Economy, Cuts Argentina Outlook

The fund says recent U.S. tariff shifts have had limited effects so far yet leave a cloud over investment and prices.

Overview

  • Mexico’s 2025 growth is revised up to 1.0% from 0.2% in June, overturning an April projection of contraction.
  • The IMF values Mexico’s GDP at $1.9 trillion in 2025, ranking 13th globally, and projects $2.4 trillion by 2030, moving to 12th with only modest per‑capita gains.
  • Mexico’s expansion is expected to top 2% starting in 2027, with growth around 2.1% on average through 2030.
  • Latin America and the Caribbean’s 2025 forecast rises to 2.4%, lifted mainly by Mexico’s upgrade.
  • Argentina’s 2025 outlook is trimmed to 4.5% growth with average inflation of 41.3%, and unemployment projections worsen versus April.