Overview

• In its Article IV statement, the IMF raises Mexico’s GDP forecast to 1.0% for 2025 from 0.2% and to 1.5% for 2026, citing resilient exports.
• The Fund urges preserving trade openness and avoiding distortions, pointing to new import levies including a 33.5% tax on goods from countries without trade deals that could add to inflation and dent confidence.
• Staff projects gross public debt could climb to about 61.5% of GDP by 2030 under current plans and recommends stronger consolidation, such as moving the deficit toward 2.5% of GDP by 2027 and creating an independent fiscal council.
• Further cuts by Banco de México should wait for clearer progress toward the 3% inflation target, the IMF says, noting services-price pressures, potential food disinflation reversal and peso volatility; the policy rate stands near 7.75% after substantial easing.
• President Claudia Sheinbaum welcomes the IMF upgrade and says government actions are sustaining growth despite U.S. tariff tensions.