Overview

• México’s 2025 growth is now forecast at 1.0%, with a pickup to 1.5% in 2026, as the IMF links the slowdown chiefly to U.S. tariff uncertainty.
• Exports have remained resilient, but consumption and investment have weakened under tighter policy and trade frictions, according to the Article IV assessment.
• The IMF expects inflation to moderate toward Banco de México’s 3% goal and says further rate cuts should wait for clearer evidence that core pressures are easing.
• The Fund projects a 2025 deficit of 4.3% of GDP versus the 3.9% target and warns that the current path could push gross debt toward about 61.5% of GDP by 2030 without stronger consolidation.
• The assessment welcomes plans to open Pemex to private capital, notes a 90‑day U.S. tariff truce granted in August during TMEC consultations, and cautions against new trade‑distorting import measures.