Overview
- The IMF projects global growth of 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, with the United States slightly upgraded to 2.0% and 2.1% and Germany held at 0.2% and 0.9%.
- The IMF’s view for Germany remains weaker than Berlin’s 2026 forecast of 1.3%, reflecting higher trade uncertainty and the impact of US tariffs on an export‑reliant economy.
- IMF officials say tariff effects have been muted so far due to exemptions, front‑loaded imports and rerouted trade, but warn firms may pass costs to consumers over time.
- The Bundesbank reports industry softness, falling exports and orders—especially in autos—and weak consumer spending, even as some late‑year indicators hint at modest stabilization.
- Regional chamber surveys across Germany describe stagnation, scant investment and planned job cuts, reinforcing the cautious outlook and concerns about competitiveness.