Overview
- The IMF now projects global GDP growth at 3.3% in both 2025 and 2026, an upward revision attributed to resilient activity as firms rework supply chains and technology spending accelerates.
- India’s forecast for FY26 rises to 7.3% after stronger recent outturns, with growth seen at 6.4% in 2026 and 2027, reinforcing its status as the fastest-growing major economy.
- China’s 2026 outlook is raised to 4.5%, reflecting lower U.S. effective tariff rates—assumed near 18.5%—under a year-long trade truce and stimulus measures expected over two years.
- Official data show China grew 5.0% in 2025 but slowed to 4.5% in the fourth quarter, as weak domestic demand and a prolonged property downturn persisted even with record trade surpluses.
- The IMF forecasts global inflation easing to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, while cautioning that concentrated AI-led investment and renewed trade or geopolitical strains could derail gains.