Overview
- Global growth is now forecast at 3.3% in 2026, up 0.2 percentage point from October, with 2027 held at 3.2%, according to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook update.
- India’s FY26 growth projection was increased by 0.7 point to 7.3% on stronger recent outturns, with growth expected to moderate to 6.4% in the subsequent two years.
- China’s statistics bureau reported 5.0% GDP growth for 2025, with momentum cooling to 4.5% in the fourth quarter as weak domestic demand and the property downturn persisted.
- The IMF lifted China’s 2026 forecast to 4.5%, reflecting lower effective U.S. tariff rates following the November trade truce and stimulus measures assumed over two years.
- The IMF assumes an effective U.S. tariff rate of 18.5%, highlights AI-driven investment as a key support, projects global inflation easing to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, and warns of downside risks from AI setbacks, renewed trade frictions or geopolitical shocks.