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Overview
- The World Economic Outlook raises 2026 global GDP growth to 3.3%, up 0.2 percentage point from October, citing a surge in technology and artificial intelligence investment that offsets tariff shocks.
- The IMF projects U.S. growth at 2.4% in 2026 and China at 4.5% before a slowdown to 4% in 2027, with the eurozone at 1.3%.
- Brazil’s 2026 growth forecast is cut to 1.6%, below the Brazilian Finance Ministry’s 2.4% estimate and the World Bank’s 2.0% projection.
- Global trade volume is expected to decline 2.6% in 2026 after a 4.1% drop in 2025, then rebound by 3.1% in 2027.
- Global inflation is seen easing to 3.8% in 2026, with downside risks from potential renewed U.S. tariff actions, a reassessment of AI productivity gains, and tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine.