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1h ago

IMF Lifts 2026 Global Growth Forecast to 3.3% as AI Investment and Eased Tariffs Support Outlook

An AI investment wave is driving the upgrade, the Fund says.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the global economy to grow at a steady 3.3% in 2026 | Image: Reuters
Workers load sacks of onions onto a supply truck at a wholesale market in Bengaluru, India, August 18, 2025. REUTERS/Priyanshu Singh/File Photo
People enjoy their time on a hill overlooking Yantian port in Shenzhen, Guangdong province, China May 9, 2025. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang
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Overview

  • The IMF’s January update raises its 2026 global GDP forecast by 0.2 percentage point to 3.3%, matching an estimated 3.3% in 2025 and edging 2027 at 3.2%.
  • India receives the largest revision, with FY26 growth lifted 0.7 points to 7.3%, before moderating to about 6.4% in 2026–27 on a fiscal-year basis.
  • China’s 2026 growth is upgraded to 4.5% and the United States to 2.4%, with the Fund citing lower effective U.S. tariff rates after a late‑2025 truce and strong tech-related investment.
  • South Korea is nudged to 1.9% for 2026, while the UK stays at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027, with a slight 2025 uptick to 1.4% that drew contrasting political reactions in London.
  • Global headline inflation is projected to ease from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, as the IMF flags risks from concentrated AI investment, trade-policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.