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11h ago

IMF Lifts 2025 MENA Growth Outlook to 3.3% as Regional Resilience Builds

IMF cautions that elevated global uncertainty keeps the outlook tilted to the downside.

Jihad Azour, Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is reflected in glass as he attends the IMF/World Bank 2025 Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C., U.S., October 17, 2025. REUTERS/Ken Cedeno
An organic market in Beirut. The IMF says Lebanon's ceasefire with Israel 'offers hope' for a spell of reconstruction, which would be a boon for its economy. EPA
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Overview

  • Stronger oil production, public investment and reforms boosted exporters, while importers benefited from lower energy prices, robust tourism and stronger remittances.
  • Saudi Arabia is now projected to expand about 4% in 2025 and 2026, and the UAE is forecast to grow 4.8% in 2025 and 5% in 2026.
  • Egypt’s 2025 growth was revised up to 4.3% as inflation fell to 11.7% in September from nearly 40% in 2023, supported by an $8 billion IMF programme with fifth and sixth reviews targeted for completion in the fourth quarter.
  • Regional financial conditions improved as sovereign spreads narrowed, several countries regained market access and nominal exchange rates depreciated despite tight monetary policy.
  • The IMF says the Gaza‑Israel war and other tensions have had a limited short‑term impact, with a Lebanon ceasefire and Syria’s political transition offering reconstruction prospects, even as risks from weaker global demand, trade strains and inflation shocks persist.