Overview

• The IMF says the effective U.S. tariff rate has run near 9–10% after exemptions and deals, well below initial assumptions near 23%.
• IMF chief economist Pierre‑Olivier Gourinchas cautions that the AI investment boom could unwind in a dot‑com‑style correction without triggering a systemic crisis.
• U.S. bank earnings highlight a dealmaking rebound, with Goldman Sachs’ investment‑banking revenue up 42% and J.P. Morgan’s fees up 16%, even as executives warn of frothy asset prices.
• The Fund flags widening fiscal deficits and rising sovereign yields as a major downside risk to the outlook, with elevated public debt leaving countries like Brazil more exposed.
• Brazilian economists and the central bank expect a calmer year‑end in FX than 2024, and the dollar opened around R$5.48 on Oct. 15 as risk sentiment improved.