Overview

• The fund projects 2025 world growth at 3.2% after a 0.2-point upgrade and leaves 2026 at 3.1%, still below the pre-pandemic 3.7% average.
• The IMF links the improvement to lowered tariffs following U.S.-led negotiations and restrained retaliation, yet says it is too soon to judge the growth impact and keeps downside risks elevated.
• The United States is forecast to grow 2.0% in 2025 after a 0.1-point lift, with expected Federal Reserve rate cuts seen supporting activity.
• Japan’s outlook rises by 0.4 points to 1.1% on anticipated real-wage gains that underpin consumption despite weaker external demand.
• China remains at 4.8% as fiscal support expands, while global inflation is put at 4.2% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026 with U.S. inflation not seen returning to 2% until 2027.