Overview

• The World Economic Outlook raises 2025 global growth to 3.2%, a 0.2-point upgrade from July, after smaller-than-feared effects from U.S. tariff measures and limited retaliation.
• The 2026 global forecast stays at 3.1% as the IMF cautions it is premature to conclude trade actions carry no growth impact and warns that downside risks remain large.
• Country revisions for 2025 put the United States at 2.0% (up 0.1 point), Japan at 1.1% (up 0.4), and China unchanged at 4.8%.
• Global inflation is projected at 4.2% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, with U.S. inflation seen returning to the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal in 2027.
• A separate IMF fiscal report projects advanced-economy debt at 111.8% of GDP in 2026, rising to 118.5% by 2030, highlighting higher servicing costs and spending pressures, with Japan at 226.8% in 2026.