Overview
- The IMF kept the UK’s forecasts at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027, while revising its 2025 estimate up to 1.4% from 1.3%.
- Britain and Italy were the only G7 economies not granted a 2026 upgrade in the latest World Economic Outlook.
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves cited the 2025 revision as evidence the country is turning a corner and said the UK is on course to be the fastest-growing European economy this year.
- Conservatives including Sir Mel Stride and Andrew Griffith called that stance “desperate” and “delusional,” highlighting IMF projections that leave the UK behind the US and Canada.
- The IMF projects UK inflation will fall to 2% by year-end due to a weakening labour market and flags global risks from renewed trade tensions and a potential correction in highly valued AI stocks.